I hear a Eurovision entry before the competition and say "here's a winner", or "here's a top 5 entry". I have been predicting at least the top 4 (of 5) right since 1999, which left me thinking, "How do I do that year after year?"

"Our unconscious reactions come out of a locked room, and we can't look inside that room. But with experience we become expert at using our behaviour and our training to interpret - and decode - what lies behind our snap judgments and first impressions. It's a lot like what people do when they are in psychoanalysis: they spend years analysing their unconscious with the help of a trained therapist until they begin to get a sense of how their mind works."
Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking, Malcolm Gladwell

It is true that I have experience in the Eurovision Song Contest and music in general. Eurovision is something I hate to love! As a child, I was only allowed to stay up late to watch Eurovision, so I guess my parents are to blame for this obsession. I'm also a composer and producer; I know the inner workings of building up a complex production from a simple idea.

But I'm also a scientist. I like certainty - a score, a prediction; if someone asks me why I made the decision I did, I can point to a set of rules. Gladwell thinks "for the most important decisions, there can be no certainty." This web site is a quest to see if I can come up with a How-To Guide, which outlines everything one needs to be looking for in an ESC winner song/performance and a scoring system.

Do not use my findings as betting advice - just yet. Only my close circle of friends gets such advice at the moment. :)

Let me know if you have any ideas about predicting a Eurovision Winner and please keep coming back for updates.